Simon sez (... everything, with brutal honesty)

As expected, tough talent critic Simon Cowell has more than "American Idol" on his mind. He sounds off on lip-syncing, pop fashion and who could take whom in head-to-head competition.

By Frappa Stout

Yes, he has earned his reputation as the bad boy of television. The Brit talent manager turned American reality show icon is the reality check, the voice of brutal honesty and, sometimes, the dream destroyer for legions of wannabe pop stars on his hit show, "American Idol."

But Cowell, who this year also is a judge for our USA WEEKEND Songwriting Contest for Teens, can be surprisingly charming -- and, let's face it, he's usually right.

Judge for yourself with this exclusive Cowell sound-off.

Here's Simon on ...

What makes a star a star
It's talent, determination, selfishness, originality. And luck plays a big part in it. Take Britney Spears, landing that ... "Baby One More Time" song, only after TLC turned it down. You just can't account for that kind of thing when planning a career.

This season's "American Idol", crew
The guys are much cooler -- they take longer strides when they come in. They are not the particular kind of stage-school wannabe artists we are used to seeing. Fantasia really changed the competition, because she was a very credible, cool artist and wasn't seen as a pop brat. Thank God she won, because if the other girl had won -- Diana bloody DeGarmo -- that would have been a disaster. She was turning the show into a kind of pageant.

Regretting something he said
Very, very rarely. All I care about is giving an honest assessment.

How often he's impressed
Not very often. There's a girl called Katie Melua, who is kind of like an English Norah Jones. I also think [British soul singer] Joss Stone is terrific.

Talent -- it matters after all?
In the long term, absolutely. But we live in a world where weird things happen. I mean, if you told me an artist who isn't selling so many records can go on a reality show and pretend to be stupid -- saying she didn't know that Chicken of the Sea wasn't chicken -- and then off the back of that her sister will get a reality show and become a star ... It's not exactly plotting a career, is it?

Speaking of which -- Ashlee vs. Jessica?
Ah, God. There is no denying that Jessica can sing, but ... she turned herself into this dumb blonde, a bit like Marilyn Monroe. I like the sister.

Lip-syncing vs. sounding bad
I think it's about what the public wants to hear. It takes so long to make a record sound great in the studio. I was sitting at home recently, listening to Enrique Iglesias singing live on a late-night television show, doing the worst I'd ever heard in my life. I remember thinking, "Is it really worth it for the sake of credibility?"

The Prince-Madonna Syndrome
They've got 50-year careers because their songs stand the test of time -- the old ones, anyway. But they are still obsessed with plugging their new music. When you go see Madonna or Prince, you don't want to hear the new material.

Usher as the new Michael Jackson
I don't think he's as good as Michael Jackson at his peak, because you're not going to be listening to the Usher records in 10 years in the same way we listen to "Thriller" and "Billie Jean," because they still sound amazing. But he's a very switched-on, sensible, motivated guy. He's at the top of his game at the moment.

Usher vs. Justin Timberlake?
If I had to have one of the two, I would take Usher any day. The interesting thing about Justin is, he is a white boy who has tried to make himself black over the years. So you get the impression sometimes that he wants to be something he's not.

The pop-star look
I think image is important when it's a unique image. Eminem is a good example, because he's got his own thing happening, and it reflects his personality. In R&B at the moment, particularly with a lot of female singers, it is very difficult to spot the difference between 10 of them. They all have the same-sounding first names, or they all sound alike and dress identically.

Beyoncé vs. Alicia Keys?
Beyoncé has made one very, very good pop record, "Crazy in Love." [But] I went to see her in concert in Vegas, and I was bored out of my mind. Alicia is smart and a fantastic songwriter ... like a modern-day Carole King.

Singing movie stars
It's risky. Minnie Driver tried it recently and fell flat on her face. I can understand the popularity of Hilary Duff, and she sings well, and Lindsay Lohan will be a huge star. J.Lo was one of the first, but the interesting thing about her is that she's never made a great movie or a great record. But she's still a star.

FCC crackdowns on indecency after Janet Jackson's "wardrobe malfunction"
Ironically, I think what happened helped Janet in the short term. She made a very weak album. There are other things to worry about, like so many songs pushing gun culture. When I was younger, I was never buying records telling me to beat a girl up or buy a gun. That's where you have real problems.

The death of the music video
They are less and less important, and their outlets are becoming smaller. I think only 5% of MTV's programming now is videos. The trouble is that they have become the equivalent of moving wallpaper. You notice them, but you can't remember them. If you asked me to describe an Usher video, I couldn't remember any.

Becoming rich and famous
Luckily, I'm in my 40s, so it hasn't turned my head in any way. It has helped my business. It's been fun, but I don't think it's going to last much longer.

Who we'll listen to in 10 years
Christina Aguilera. She is an unbelievable talent. Christina's "Beautiful" is one of the best pop records I have ever heard in my life.

His Grammy picks (for next Sunday)
I like Maroon 5. Usher will win everything, I'm sure of that.

Simon predicts ...
Over the next few years, you will see more emphasis on artists appealing to an older audience. No question about it. We are going back to an era when artists like Frank Sinatra and Dean Martin were selling to people 40-plus. That is why Elvis Presley and the Beatles were so successful -- because they were selling records to 18-year-olds and 50-year-olds.

Norah Jones is a good example, and that is why she has sold so many records. Josh Groban is another example, and Clay Aiken.

Mark my words.

Photographs of Cowell by Colin Bell for USA WEEKEND
Grooming by Julia Carta; styling by Rachel Davis; suit on cover by Armani